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The Rotation Rope Tightens; Phil Tomkins
Topic Started: Oct 26 2007, 03:41 PM (253 Views)
Jimmymac™
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Yes its a long read this one but its also very interesting too, especially the latter half of it. If you have ten minutes its worth a look (although I might be able to predict one or two response....)

Quote:
 
The Rotation Rope Tightens

Give a man enough rope, the saying goes, and he will hang himself.

Or in other words, give him the opportunity and he will be the victim of his own folly.

But it's not Rafa who's hanging himself with rotation –– it's the short-sighted media doing it for him. Like a man wrongly identified as a paedophile by people who forgot to check their facts, an angry mob is gathering, their ire based on misinformation.

I can't stress enough how utterly out of control the anti-rotation rhetoric has become. It's frightening. Anytime anything –– any single thing –– goes wrong at Liverpool, it's the fault of rotation. It thwarts all proper debate.

Rafa's rotation is the root of all evil. I'm just waiting to hear that Rafa's rotation was riding a moped down the Pont d'Alma road tunnel in Paris in August 1997, or was stood with a rifle on a grassy knoll in Dealey Plaza, Texas, in 1963.

Only a few weeks ago Mark Lawrenson was laying all the blame of a bad result at the feet of rotation. On Football Focus in early October he said "I'm afraid it's the rotation system again".

Then, when Rafa keeps faith in the same two strikers who played at the weekend for the Besiktas game (and he only had three to choose from), Lawrenson says on Five Live: "Rafael Benitez got his selection policy completely wrong. You saw what Crouch did. Within a minute of coming on he made the goal for Gerrard."

Now, Lawrenson may be correct on either one of these assumptions. But he cannot be correct on both.

To me it is yet another example of punditry by hindsight –– of always being right and a manager wrong, by suggesting, after the event, the opposite of what the manager actually did, preferably with a condescending tone of superiority. It's inconsistent, hypocritical punditry that involves paying no attention to what you've said before. Any muppet can do that.

If Benítez had played Crouch in Turkey, he'd have been rotating. Had Liverpool still lost, or Crouch had a poor game, Lawrenson would no doubt have blamed the lack of continuity up front. "I'm afraid it's the rotation system again". But Rafa went with the two strikers who share nine goals this season, not the one who has just one (admittedly from limited chances). I mean, fancy doing something crazy like that?

A post by NeverWalkALone on 606 appeared on the main BBC football site: "I think Rafa needs to scrap his rotation policy once and for all ... or we need to scrap him. Anyone agree?" It's typical of the mood amongst many so-called fans. It's mob mentality, with the lowest possible IQ.

This came during a game where Benítez made just two changes following the derby, dropping Momo Sissoko, whom everyone said needed removing, to bring in Pennant, and replacing Benayoun with Babel, which, given both are flair players, is pretty much like-for-like. So, a more attacking team on balance, and one in which Babel, who was introduced to the side, did particularly well.

At first it was zonal marking that was Benítez's crazy continental folly, but most Liverpool fans have come to see that the team actually concede very few goals from set pieces delivered into the box. In fact, barely any.

But even now, to highlight the ignorance of pundits who only catch Liverpool games here and there, Andy Gray only ever says negative things like "there's the problem with zonal marking...".

He did this against Besiktas when a Turkish centre-back found himself with an incredibly difficult shooting chance towards the angle of the 18-yard box. "It could so easily have gone in the top corner," Gray said, as the ball sailed into space. Yeah, Andy, if it was Marco Van Basten shooting.

The only goal Pepe Reina has conceded from a corner of free-kick into the box this season was against Everton. The original corner was dealt with (to a degree), but the ball was put back in from the other side of the area. And even then, the problem wasn't an unmarked Evertonian because of zonal marking –– it was Sami Hyypia thinking he was Marco Van Basten. Hyypia was perfectly placed, but he scored an own goal when attempting to clear. s**t happens.

While the media hasn't been able to get a bandwagon going over zonal marking for a year or two now, the more complex and 'unprovable' issue of rotation rumbles on.

And yet the more I delve into rotation –– looking into the issue in infinitely more detail than I've seen anyone else in the media bother to –– the more proof I find that it works. Or, at the very least, that it's far from the folly so many would have us believe. I'm never going to say it's perfect, but then no team selection can ever be said to be perfect before any game; you can only make judgements afterwards, and that's a luxury a manager doesn't have.

Oliver Anderson, the statistician with whom I have been working for a couple of years, is now producing stats on all Premiership teams, and trends within the entire division. For a compay called The Football Review, he has produced a book and a website that looks at a variety of statistics, most of which I think are very meaningful. In particular, the stuff on rotation.

From my own research, I was aware that, in the league last season, Liverpool won their most points, on average, when Rafa made three changes. And I'd also pointed out that Liverpool made the same amount of Premiership changes as Manchester United last season (118, at just over three per game), which was also the exact same amount made by Chelsea the year before.

And unlike all the media hacks, I had also previously pointed out that, when it comes to Alex Ferguson supposedly never rotating his main men while Rafa always tinkers with his, the fact was that Gerrard, Reina and Carragher all started more league games than any Man United player.

But it's interesting to look at the trend across the entire Premiership. Changes may also be due to injury or suspension, but it all goes to show the need for the "same XI this week lads" that so many old-timers suggest is essential is an utter myth when it comes to the modern game.

Last season there were 380 Premiership matches, which means 760 team line-ups. Only 83 of them were unchanged from the previous league game; 677 involved altered team-sheets.

Across the league as a whole, when managers kept an unchanged team they on average won 37% of matches. Managers who made none, one or two changes to their line-ups also won 37%.

But managers who made between three and seven changes won 41% –– a fairly significant improvement. Indeed, mirroring the amount of unchanged line-ups, there were also 83 times when managers made four changes, and the win-rate then was over 42%. Compare that with the 83 times no changes were made, and tell me this stat is irrelevant?

There could be a million reasons why all these results occurred, ranging from luck to inspired judgement, but it clearly shows that changing a team does not automatically lead to failure. Last season, a team was actually far more likely to win with four changes than with none. And Manchester United won the league with an average of more than three changes per game.

Now, perhaps Rafa has rotated too much this season. And on occasion he has got his line-up wrong, inasmuch as you can say we'd have done better had he made other selections (which, of course, you can't for certain).

But he's also had disruptive injuries to Gerrard, Carragher, Kewell (okay, he's always injured, but all the same he's a player Rafa wants to use), and more recently, Agger, Alonso and Torres. Now for me, they are six of the eight most talented footballers on the books. Gerrard and Carragher both lost their form with their injuries. Not because of rotation.

I'm sure Rafa would want to stick to a more settled core, or spine, to his side, as he did in recent seasons, but five of the six players I've just listed represent that spine. So how can he possibly find the consistency he wants if players are out injured, or struggling after injury? If the team is deprived of some of those key men who would play 80-90% of games, then perhaps it figures that 'mere squad players' will be switched between in their absence?

Rafa also lost his right-hand man, and while I feel that the club can recover from Pako Ayestaran's departure, and weren't exactly relying on him for every important decision, it was a shock to the system that, at the time, could not have helped. It coincided with the international break that disrupted the great form the Reds were showing, and also coincided with the loss of Agger and Alonso.
More recently, Torres had actually just played three games in a row before he went to Spain with his national team, and without Rafa's careful training regime which staves off a lot of muscle injuries, promptly got injured.

So how can you just blame rotation when there are clearly far more disruptive factors? How do you strip away these crucial factors, any of which on their own could cause problems, to leave you with the all-too-simple conclusion that "I'm afraid it's that rotation system again"?

It's becoming a cliché, but it needs saying: no-one blamed rotation when the Champions League was won and a final reached last season, or when the Reds were winning 10-12 games on the trot when reaching 82 league points. But of course, had Liverpool lost just one of those games, despite Rafa making changes each and every week, the lazy hindsight pundits would say "you never change a winning team".

How the f**k can Rafa win, then? Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't, by men who always know better after the event.

Does winning the league mean you are the best manager ever, but not winning it, when there are three other very strong rivals –– two of whom have spent more on their squads, and two of whose managers have been in their jobs for a combined 33 years –– make you a total idiot? And all this, while Liverpool are having the best league start for years, where they remain unbeaten. Points have been dropped, but the situation is hardly bleak, nor will it be even if the Reds lose against Arsenal. (Although it won't help, clearly). There's three-quarters of the season to go.

Make no mistake: Rafa is being hung out to dry by the media. The man has made mistakes, but then so too has every manager.
It's become a game of hangman, and I fear he won't win; more than anything, I fear the self-fulfilling prophecy of fans baying for blood. It doesn't help that this bloodlust is being served by men in the media who want to make money by criticising the club we love, for institutions that want to make money by by criticising the club we love.

The pressure is building, and much of it is down to the ludicrous criticism of a system too many people either don't understand, or who close their eyes to the facts. It sure ain't perfect, but what the hell is?

© Paul Tomkins 2007

http://www.paultomkins.com/blog.html
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Woody
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dont really like reading.read some of it though.
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manu22
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very good read but its rafa's own doin im afraid to say
Rivaldo greatest player in my time
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talkingsense®
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Interesting read (I can and do), pretty fair point really when you sit back and think, Rafa is getting flak (not ours) for rotating and I think it does help for the end of season push. ie makes you relatively stronger in the cups.

The problem is it does look like it hurts the league form and change for change sake is different than for injuries.

I believe that the falter,which isn't a fall, has been caused by injuries and a loss of form of key players. Torres is a superb addition and I'm sure he would have played, if fit, against Besiktas. You had plenty of shots just didn't convert. I also think Gerrard's lack of his usual high standards has impacted team performance.

This has nothing to do with rotation, (for rotation's sake), the problem is the likes of Lawrenson have become too lazy to do real analysis and the press pick up on it, feeding the pundits and vice versa. Then before you know where you are.......well...you're here!

Please beat Arsenal on Sunday and shut them all up..at least for a while!
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manu22
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i don't agree with that yes they have emphasised the poin that he rotates but forgoodness sake he hasnt got a settled team for instance look at utd and arsenal usually when fletcher or o'shea comes in u know its for a real good reason, for liverpool no1 has a clue yes it may be an injury or a suspension but because of the way benitez does it he deserves the flak.
Rivaldo greatest player in my time
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talkingsense®
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manu22
Oct 26 2007, 04:16 PM
i don't agree with that yes they have emphasised the poin that he rotates but forgoodness sake he hasnt got a settled team for instance look at utd and arsenal usually when fletcher or o'shea comes in u know its for a real good reason, for liverpool no1 has a clue yes it may be an injury or a suspension but because of the way benitez does it he deserves the flak.

No I agree that Rafa rotates, sometimes for rotations sake and not injuries/loss of form, to save legs for the end of the season.

However it is true that this one point is picked up on and laid as the blame for every dropped point/poor performance which in truth is massively over-simplyfying and over-stating the point.
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Jimmymac™
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talkingsense
Oct 26 2007, 04:23 PM


However it is true that this one point is picked up on and laid as the blame for every dropped point/poor performance which in truth is massively over-simplyfying and over-stating the point.

Bingo!

I wrote this in response to the same thread elsewhere so rather than wear out my poor fingers i'll just copy and paste it here......


Quote:
 
aye there is a massive bias view to the report which automatically tries to paint it into the right light but its just interesting to see some of the facts and figues involved and such.

Its definately true that he has had some forced rotations this season, of course there are some that he has chosen that have been odd but a fair few he has had little choice in. As it says, at this stage of the season we have already had/are having injury problems with Gerrard, Carragher, Agger, Alonso, Torres, Arbeloa, Aurelio.

A fair amount of those players are the ones your expect to be the "spine" of the team or the "guaranteed" starters.

History tells us rafa would have rotated them anyway so theres no way to say what he might have done in hindsight, but thats still a fairly hefty injury list at such an early stage of the season.

Every team has a bad blip in general, hopefully this is getting ours out of the way. Theres not doubting that we have always had a much better latter half to our season than the first half. For as long as I can remember (and thats right back to our years of dominance) we have had a slow start and picked it up eventually. If we can just keep a reasonable pace for the coming month or so then I have confidence we will continue to fight. I said before this season we wouldnt win the title, merely that we would come a lot closer than the prior two seasons and be in the mix towards the end. I still believe that fully, I still believe this team is capable of it and I still believe that rafa can get us there. Will he get us to a title eventually....I dont know, but I would like to give him this season and next season to at least go for it.......
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manu22
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talkingsense
Oct 26 2007, 03:23 PM
manu22
Oct 26 2007, 04:16 PM
i don't agree with that yes they have emphasised the poin that he rotates but forgoodness sake he hasnt got a settled team for instance look at utd and arsenal usually when fletcher or o'shea comes in u know its for a real good reason, for liverpool no1 has a clue yes it may be an injury or a suspension but because of the way benitez does it he deserves the flak.

No I agree that Rafa rotates, sometimes for rotations sake and not injuries/loss of form, to save legs for the end of the season.

However it is true that this one point is picked up on and laid as the blame for every dropped point/poor performance which in truth is massively over-simplyfying and over-stating the point.

yes but lol no1 knows that's why and a journalist/pundit is too intesify that especially as the whole footballing world can see he is making a mockery out rotating same happened to ranieri.
Rivaldo greatest player in my time
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itsgunnabe11
ya best protect ya neck
he chances to many key postion like all the forwards at once. you need a settled strikefource, breeds confidence. i think thats liverpools problem. at aresnal manu chelsea if rooney,van persie or drogba are fit they play. same as ronaldo,lampard,fabegas,scholes,essien,hleb in midfield. but defence is very important to have at least knowing your strongest back four or at least 3 of them,rio,vid,evra,toure,gallas,clichy,carvallho,terry,a.cole.
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Jimmymac™
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he knows 3 out 4 of his best back four. Finnan, Agger and Carra, and it would seem probably Arbeloa on the left.

But agger is injured, and so is arbeloa, hardly his fault.....

Up front he wants to play torres (yes there was the early resting but after that he played him consistantly) but again he's injured..

In the middle of the park he has most often played Gerrard and Alonso, thats since alonso came to the club only swapping him out when we need a more defensive approach. But alonso is injured....

We know by history that rafa rotates, ok i'll admit that and that its been at the detriment to his team at times (other times its worked damn well).

But this season we have laready had massive injury issues and he has been forced into changing a fair few of those players.....
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manu22
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Jimmymac
Oct 26 2007, 04:24 PM
he knows 3 out 4 of his best back four. Finnan, Agger and Carra, and it would seem probably Arbeloa on the left.

But agger is injured, and so is arbeloa, hardly his fault.....

Up front he wants to play torres (yes there was the early resting but after that he played him consistantly) but again he's injured..

In the middle of the park he has most often played Gerrard and Alonso, thats since alonso came to the club only swapping him out when we need a more defensive approach. But alonso is injured....

We know by history that rafa rotates, ok i'll admit that and that its been at the detriment to his team at times (other times its worked damn well).

But this season we have laready had massive injury issues and he has been forced into changing a fair few of those players.....

then does this mean ur back up plauers are distinclty average sissoko good player but more a portsmouth type player same applie to voronin torres and babel are impressive signings doe. also kuyt is not good enough he is like forlan more avbout hard work than finishing
Rivaldo greatest player in my time
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itsgunnabe11
ya best protect ya neck
yeah they are average. babel hasnt impressed so far, look a little rusty when he comes on,needs to play all the time. kuyt is good player not a striker though.bit like alan smith.good player just dont no his postion
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5euros
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Bradley
its ok to rotate 2 or 3 but when its 5 or 6 it cant be easy for players to gel
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