-
Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]
Greetings and welcome to The Football Net. We love talking balls, do you?


You're currently viewing our forum as a guest. Therefore you are limited to certain areas of the board and there are some features you can't use. If you join our community, you'll be able to access member-only sections, take part in the banter, vote in polls and enjoy fun competitions such as fantasy football and the betting exchange. Registration is simple, fast, and completely free.


Join us today on our football forums to talk balls with us!


If you're already a member please log in to your account to access all of our features:

Username:   Password:
Add Reply
Is Kenny Dalglish a stop-gap at Liverpool?
Topic Started: Oct 15 2011, 10:35 PM (2,908 Views)
FLOPP'D
Member Avatar
The King in the North
VivaRonaldo
Oct 28 2011, 01:47 PM
paddypower
Oct 28 2011, 01:29 PM
Once again, you're ignoring fixtures.
After this weekend Arsenal will have played Chelsea (not sure if home or away, difficult regardless), united away, spurs away and Liverpool at home..
Quote:
 
Personally, I don't think league tables tell the full picture during a season, as they don’t take into account the teams played so far, neither do they illustrate whether the fixtures were home or away.

I’ve posted in other threads the details of a basic model I use to evaluate league standings but thought it might be of interest to start a thread for this season. I intend to periodically update it to include the effects of results on my theoretical league table.

There are a few assumptions I have to make to keep this model as simple as possible. Firstly, I assume that 90 points should be a target points total for a title challenge. You can't control league position entirely yourself, so focussing on points makes more sense to me. If we earn 90 points this season and don’t win the league, it would just mean another team has done exceptionally well.

In order to achieve 90 points, I make the assumption that you need to win every home game (57 points) and your 7 'easiest'* away games (21 points), drawing the remaining 12 away games (12 points). This means that a draw away at Old Trafford is a par result for a title winning team, with a win there being 2-over-par, but a draw at home to Norwich is 2-under-par. During the season (as with during a round of golf to use that analogy further) it is unlikely for you to play to par in every match (hole), but any dropped points need to be made up elsewhere.

* I assume the 7 'easiest' away games are against the teams that finished between 17th and 14th last season and the three promoted teams as I need to determine my par scores before the season starts (I appreciate this isn't ideal, but I have to start somewhere).

During the season, I will be plotting the results to par of all the teams that finished above us, as well as our own, to see how the fixtures played affects the league position.


This blog also assumes 71 points is enough for top four.

Posted Image

So even though they are only two points behind us in the table. Our start has been better.
Posted Image



John Henry April 2011
 
Success is winning championships. It is nothing less than that. And when you win a championship – and we will – success isn't measured or accomplished by winning once
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Stryke
Star of Brokeback Mountain
Papa_Lazarou
Oct 28 2011, 01:48 PM
paddypower
Oct 28 2011, 01:29 PM
Once again, you're ignoring fixtures.
And performances tbh. The games we haven't won haven't been through a lack of effort or chances. All bar the Spurs game of course. Should have beaten Stoke or at the very least got a point. Should have held on to our lead against Utd and or scored some of our good chances. Had plenty of chances to beat Sunderland etc.
But you could equally say that there was a bit for fortune in games that a fan those those teams would say they "should" have got a draw, a red card and own goal aginst Arsenal proving to be the turning point for example.

I don't think there is a huge difference between the fixtures. I've struck out the identical fixtures, i think the game against each other and the United games even out H/A wise so i crossed them out as well.

Liverpool:
Sunderland H
Arsenal A
Bolton H
Stoke A
Spurs A
Wolves H
Everton A
United H
Norwich H

Arsenal:
Newcastle A
Liverpool H
United A
Swansea H
Blackburn A
Bolton H
Spurs A
Sunderland H
Stoke H
Sponsored by 'Statistics R Us'
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
FLOPP'D
Member Avatar
The King in the North
I think you'll find Suarez and Meireles was the turning point against Arsenal B)
Posted Image



John Henry April 2011
 
Success is winning championships. It is nothing less than that. And when you win a championship – and we will – success isn't measured or accomplished by winning once
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Stryke
Star of Brokeback Mountain
That "alternative league table" thread is only of the only remotely sensible ones on that entire forum :lol: I actually keep an eye on it to when its updated.
Sponsored by 'Statistics R Us'
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
FLOPP'D
Member Avatar
The King in the North
Stryke
Oct 28 2011, 02:14 PM
That "alternative league table" thread is only of the only remotely sensible ones on that entire forum :lol: I actually keep an eye on it to when its updated.
Yeh I think it's fantastic :lol:
Posted Image



John Henry April 2011
 
Success is winning championships. It is nothing less than that. And when you win a championship – and we will – success isn't measured or accomplished by winning once
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
FLOPP'D
Member Avatar
The King in the North
It goes to show though how ridiculous comparing the table att this stage of the season is though. If Liverpool hold onto leads against Utd and Norwich, then we're on track for a 90 point season :lol:
Posted Image



John Henry April 2011
 
Success is winning championships. It is nothing less than that. And when you win a championship – and we will – success isn't measured or accomplished by winning once
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Stryke
Star of Brokeback Mountain
Well it was 0-0 till the 70th minute then they had a man sent off and conceded an own goal 8 minutes later, it took till injury time for an "allegedly" offside goal to come. Think there was a fair amount of good fortune there that proved to be the turning point rather than substitutions.

But regardless, that wasn't my inital point, if you start saying "we should have won" then there will be games that could easily be pointed out as "should have been" dropped points instead. A failure of football fans of any team, good luck is seen as deserved/doesn't change the result while bad luck is seen as something that causes you to drop points.
Sponsored by 'Statistics R Us'
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
The Derry Pele
Member Avatar
Free Suarez
Victor
Oct 28 2011, 09:12 AM
The Derry Pele
Oct 27 2011, 07:16 PM
Victor
Oct 27 2011, 04:25 PM
We made a terrible start, lost our 2 best players, spent little money in comparrison & people talk about Wenger being sacked. Yet we are just 2 points behind you!

Liverpool really think they have had a good start? We have had a s**t one & have had far more problems with our squad & of course we havent spent £125M yet like I said 2 points behind :blink:
So being 5th isnt a good start when only 3 better teams, spurs and a newcastle team that are on run are ahead of us?
Are you saying spurs (a team that gave you an almighty spanking) are not as good as you? Do you think Arsenal have made a rubbish start to the season? I'm just asking as you are only 2 points ahead of us after spending £120M, not losing your 2 best players & having a man that can do no wrong and knows everything in charge....
I dont see why arsenals start should have anything to do with our start, and in your opinion where should liverpool be? Do you rate us better than city or utd and should be first?
F**k Damien Duff
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Stryke
Star of Brokeback Mountain
I disagree with it asuming 3 points for every home game though, to me a home point against a top 3 side is a fair result in my opinion.

Edit: on saying that the title winners seem to have averaged something like 16-17 wins of 19 at home in the last 5 seasons.
Edited by Stryke, Oct 28 2011, 02:22 PM.
Sponsored by 'Statistics R Us'
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
FLOPP'D
Member Avatar
The King in the North
Stryke
Oct 28 2011, 02:20 PM
I disagree with it asuming 3 points for every home game though, to me a home point against a top 3 side is a fair result in my opinion.
Yeh it's a bit flawed in that sense, but it's a great tool to put things in perspective. Much better than "hurr durr you spent monies and your crap" kind of posting anyways lol.
Posted Image



John Henry April 2011
 
Success is winning championships. It is nothing less than that. And when you win a championship – and we will – success isn't measured or accomplished by winning once
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
FLOPP'D
Member Avatar
The King in the North
Stryke
Oct 28 2011, 02:19 PM
Well it was 0-0 till the 70th minute then they had a man sent off and conceded an own goal 8 minutes later, it took till injury time for an "allegedly" offside goal to come. Think there was a fair amount of good fortune there that proved to be the turning point rather than substitutions.

But regardless, that wasn't my inital point, if you start saying "we should have won" then there will be games that could easily be pointed out as "should have been" dropped points instead. A failure of football fans of any team, good luck is seen as deserved/doesn't change the result while bad luck is seen as something that causes you to drop points.
Suarez>the concept of luck.
Posted Image



John Henry April 2011
 
Success is winning championships. It is nothing less than that. And when you win a championship – and we will – success isn't measured or accomplished by winning once
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Stryke
Star of Brokeback Mountain
:lol: Is he going to become the new Chuck Norris of comparisons?
Edited by Stryke, Oct 28 2011, 02:25 PM.
Sponsored by 'Statistics R Us'
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
SuarezWasNotRacist
Member Avatar
monty's bitch
paddypower
Oct 28 2011, 02:00 PM
VivaRonaldo
Oct 28 2011, 01:47 PM
paddypower
Oct 28 2011, 01:29 PM
Once again, you're ignoring fixtures.
After this weekend Arsenal will have played Chelsea (not sure if home or away, difficult regardless), united away, spurs away and Liverpool at home..
Quote:
 
Personally, I don't think league tables tell the full picture during a season, as they don’t take into account the teams played so far, neither do they illustrate whether the fixtures were home or away.

I’ve posted in other threads the details of a basic model I use to evaluate league standings but thought it might be of interest to start a thread for this season. I intend to periodically update it to include the effects of results on my theoretical league table.

There are a few assumptions I have to make to keep this model as simple as possible. Firstly, I assume that 90 points should be a target points total for a title challenge. You can't control league position entirely yourself, so focussing on points makes more sense to me. If we earn 90 points this season and don’t win the league, it would just mean another team has done exceptionally well.

In order to achieve 90 points, I make the assumption that you need to win every home game (57 points) and your 7 'easiest'* away games (21 points), drawing the remaining 12 away games (12 points). This means that a draw away at Old Trafford is a par result for a title winning team, with a win there being 2-over-par, but a draw at home to Norwich is 2-under-par. During the season (as with during a round of golf to use that analogy further) it is unlikely for you to play to par in every match (hole), but any dropped points need to be made up elsewhere.

* I assume the 7 'easiest' away games are against the teams that finished between 17th and 14th last season and the three promoted teams as I need to determine my par scores before the season starts (I appreciate this isn't ideal, but I have to start somewhere).

During the season, I will be plotting the results to par of all the teams that finished above us, as well as our own, to see how the fixtures played affects the league position.


This blog also assumes 71 points is enough for top four.

Posted Image

So even though they are only two points behind us in the table. Our start has been better.
Wtf :lol:
Man Utd's 2017/18 club sponsors:
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
FLOPP'D
Member Avatar
The King in the North
VivaRonaldo
Oct 28 2011, 02:28 PM
Wtf :lol:
What? :lol:
Posted Image



John Henry April 2011
 
Success is winning championships. It is nothing less than that. And when you win a championship – and we will – success isn't measured or accomplished by winning once
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Jeffers
Member Avatar
Ginger Prince
the only change id make to that system is that you should be (atleast)drawing at home against the top 3-5 clubs(assuming you are one of the top 6), and maybe winning the away games against the bottom 10-12?
"I don't play against a particular team. I play against the idea of losing." - Cantona
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Enjoy forums? Start your own community for free.
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Barclays Premier League · Next Topic »
Add Reply

-- -