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Is Kenny Dalglish a stop-gap at Liverpool?
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Topic Started: Oct 15 2011, 10:35 PM (2,908 Views)
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FLOPP'D
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Oct 28 2011, 02:00 PM
Post #151
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The King in the North
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- VivaRonaldo
- Oct 28 2011, 01:47 PM
- paddypower
- Oct 28 2011, 01:29 PM
Once again, you're ignoring fixtures.
After this weekend Arsenal will have played Chelsea (not sure if home or away, difficult regardless), united away, spurs away and Liverpool at home..
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Personally, I don't think league tables tell the full picture during a season, as they don’t take into account the teams played so far, neither do they illustrate whether the fixtures were home or away.
I’ve posted in other threads the details of a basic model I use to evaluate league standings but thought it might be of interest to start a thread for this season. I intend to periodically update it to include the effects of results on my theoretical league table.
There are a few assumptions I have to make to keep this model as simple as possible. Firstly, I assume that 90 points should be a target points total for a title challenge. You can't control league position entirely yourself, so focussing on points makes more sense to me. If we earn 90 points this season and don’t win the league, it would just mean another team has done exceptionally well.
In order to achieve 90 points, I make the assumption that you need to win every home game (57 points) and your 7 'easiest'* away games (21 points), drawing the remaining 12 away games (12 points). This means that a draw away at Old Trafford is a par result for a title winning team, with a win there being 2-over-par, but a draw at home to Norwich is 2-under-par. During the season (as with during a round of golf to use that analogy further) it is unlikely for you to play to par in every match (hole), but any dropped points need to be made up elsewhere.
* I assume the 7 'easiest' away games are against the teams that finished between 17th and 14th last season and the three promoted teams as I need to determine my par scores before the season starts (I appreciate this isn't ideal, but I have to start somewhere).
During the season, I will be plotting the results to par of all the teams that finished above us, as well as our own, to see how the fixtures played affects the league position.
This blog also assumes 71 points is enough for top four.

So even though they are only two points behind us in the table. Our start has been better.
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- John Henry April 2011
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Success is winning championships. It is nothing less than that. And when you win a championship – and we will – success isn't measured or accomplished by winning once
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Stryke
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Oct 28 2011, 02:11 PM
Post #152
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Star of Brokeback Mountain
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- Papa_Lazarou
- Oct 28 2011, 01:48 PM
- paddypower
- Oct 28 2011, 01:29 PM
Once again, you're ignoring fixtures.
And performances tbh. The games we haven't won haven't been through a lack of effort or chances. All bar the Spurs game of course. Should have beaten Stoke or at the very least got a point. Should have held on to our lead against Utd and or scored some of our good chances. Had plenty of chances to beat Sunderland etc. But you could equally say that there was a bit for fortune in games that a fan those those teams would say they "should" have got a draw, a red card and own goal aginst Arsenal proving to be the turning point for example.
I don't think there is a huge difference between the fixtures. I've struck out the identical fixtures, i think the game against each other and the United games even out H/A wise so i crossed them out as well.
Liverpool:
Sunderland H
Arsenal A
Bolton H Stoke A
Spurs A Wolves H Everton A
United H Norwich H
Arsenal: Newcastle A
Liverpool H
United A Swansea H Blackburn A
Bolton H
Spurs A
Sunderland H Stoke H
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FLOPP'D
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Oct 28 2011, 02:13 PM
Post #153
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The King in the North
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I think you'll find Suarez and Meireles was the turning point against Arsenal
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- John Henry April 2011
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Success is winning championships. It is nothing less than that. And when you win a championship – and we will – success isn't measured or accomplished by winning once
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Stryke
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Oct 28 2011, 02:14 PM
Post #154
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Star of Brokeback Mountain
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That "alternative league table" thread is only of the only remotely sensible ones on that entire forum I actually keep an eye on it to when its updated.
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FLOPP'D
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Oct 28 2011, 02:15 PM
Post #155
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The King in the North
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- Stryke
- Oct 28 2011, 02:14 PM
That "alternative league table" thread is only of the only remotely sensible ones on that entire forum  I actually keep an eye on it to when its updated. Yeh I think it's fantastic
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- John Henry April 2011
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Success is winning championships. It is nothing less than that. And when you win a championship – and we will – success isn't measured or accomplished by winning once
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FLOPP'D
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Oct 28 2011, 02:16 PM
Post #156
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The King in the North
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It goes to show though how ridiculous comparing the table att this stage of the season is though. If Liverpool hold onto leads against Utd and Norwich, then we're on track for a 90 point season
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- John Henry April 2011
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Success is winning championships. It is nothing less than that. And when you win a championship – and we will – success isn't measured or accomplished by winning once
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Stryke
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Oct 28 2011, 02:19 PM
Post #157
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Star of Brokeback Mountain
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Well it was 0-0 till the 70th minute then they had a man sent off and conceded an own goal 8 minutes later, it took till injury time for an "allegedly" offside goal to come. Think there was a fair amount of good fortune there that proved to be the turning point rather than substitutions.
But regardless, that wasn't my inital point, if you start saying "we should have won" then there will be games that could easily be pointed out as "should have been" dropped points instead. A failure of football fans of any team, good luck is seen as deserved/doesn't change the result while bad luck is seen as something that causes you to drop points.
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The Derry Pele
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Oct 28 2011, 02:20 PM
Post #158
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Free Suarez
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- Victor
- Oct 28 2011, 09:12 AM
- The Derry Pele
- Oct 27 2011, 07:16 PM
- Victor
- Oct 27 2011, 04:25 PM
We made a terrible start, lost our 2 best players, spent little money in comparrison & people talk about Wenger being sacked. Yet we are just 2 points behind you! Liverpool really think they have had a good start? We have had a s**t one & have had far more problems with our squad & of course we havent spent £125M yet like I said 2 points behind
So being 5th isnt a good start when only 3 better teams, spurs and a newcastle team that are on run are ahead of us?
Are you saying spurs (a team that gave you an almighty spanking) are not as good as you? Do you think Arsenal have made a rubbish start to the season? I'm just asking as you are only 2 points ahead of us after spending £120M, not losing your 2 best players & having a man that can do no wrong and knows everything in charge.... I dont see why arsenals start should have anything to do with our start, and in your opinion where should liverpool be? Do you rate us better than city or utd and should be first?
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F**k Damien Duff
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Stryke
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Oct 28 2011, 02:20 PM
Post #159
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Star of Brokeback Mountain
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I disagree with it asuming 3 points for every home game though, to me a home point against a top 3 side is a fair result in my opinion.
Edit: on saying that the title winners seem to have averaged something like 16-17 wins of 19 at home in the last 5 seasons.
Edited by Stryke, Oct 28 2011, 02:22 PM.
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FLOPP'D
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Oct 28 2011, 02:22 PM
Post #160
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The King in the North
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- Stryke
- Oct 28 2011, 02:20 PM
I disagree with it asuming 3 points for every home game though, to me a home point against a top 3 side is a fair result in my opinion. Yeh it's a bit flawed in that sense, but it's a great tool to put things in perspective. Much better than "hurr durr you spent monies and your crap" kind of posting anyways lol.
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- John Henry April 2011
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Success is winning championships. It is nothing less than that. And when you win a championship – and we will – success isn't measured or accomplished by winning once
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FLOPP'D
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Oct 28 2011, 02:23 PM
Post #161
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The King in the North
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- Stryke
- Oct 28 2011, 02:19 PM
Well it was 0-0 till the 70th minute then they had a man sent off and conceded an own goal 8 minutes later, it took till injury time for an "allegedly" offside goal to come. Think there was a fair amount of good fortune there that proved to be the turning point rather than substitutions.
But regardless, that wasn't my inital point, if you start saying "we should have won" then there will be games that could easily be pointed out as "should have been" dropped points instead. A failure of football fans of any team, good luck is seen as deserved/doesn't change the result while bad luck is seen as something that causes you to drop points. Suarez>the concept of luck.
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- John Henry April 2011
-
Success is winning championships. It is nothing less than that. And when you win a championship – and we will – success isn't measured or accomplished by winning once
|
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|
Stryke
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Oct 28 2011, 02:24 PM
Post #162
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Star of Brokeback Mountain
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Is he going to become the new Chuck Norris of comparisons?
Edited by Stryke, Oct 28 2011, 02:25 PM.
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SuarezWasNotRacist
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Oct 28 2011, 02:28 PM
Post #163
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monty's bitch
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- paddypower
- Oct 28 2011, 02:00 PM
- VivaRonaldo
- Oct 28 2011, 01:47 PM
- paddypower
- Oct 28 2011, 01:29 PM
Once again, you're ignoring fixtures.
After this weekend Arsenal will have played Chelsea (not sure if home or away, difficult regardless), united away, spurs away and Liverpool at home..
- Quote:
-
Personally, I don't think league tables tell the full picture during a season, as they don’t take into account the teams played so far, neither do they illustrate whether the fixtures were home or away.
I’ve posted in other threads the details of a basic model I use to evaluate league standings but thought it might be of interest to start a thread for this season. I intend to periodically update it to include the effects of results on my theoretical league table.
There are a few assumptions I have to make to keep this model as simple as possible. Firstly, I assume that 90 points should be a target points total for a title challenge. You can't control league position entirely yourself, so focussing on points makes more sense to me. If we earn 90 points this season and don’t win the league, it would just mean another team has done exceptionally well.
In order to achieve 90 points, I make the assumption that you need to win every home game (57 points) and your 7 'easiest'* away games (21 points), drawing the remaining 12 away games (12 points). This means that a draw away at Old Trafford is a par result for a title winning team, with a win there being 2-over-par, but a draw at home to Norwich is 2-under-par. During the season (as with during a round of golf to use that analogy further) it is unlikely for you to play to par in every match (hole), but any dropped points need to be made up elsewhere.
* I assume the 7 'easiest' away games are against the teams that finished between 17th and 14th last season and the three promoted teams as I need to determine my par scores before the season starts (I appreciate this isn't ideal, but I have to start somewhere).
During the season, I will be plotting the results to par of all the teams that finished above us, as well as our own, to see how the fixtures played affects the league position.
This blog also assumes 71 points is enough for top four.  So even though they are only two points behind us in the table. Our start has been better. Wtf
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FLOPP'D
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Oct 28 2011, 02:32 PM
Post #164
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The King in the North
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- VivaRonaldo
- Oct 28 2011, 02:28 PM
Wtf  What?
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- John Henry April 2011
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Success is winning championships. It is nothing less than that. And when you win a championship – and we will – success isn't measured or accomplished by winning once
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Jeffers
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Oct 28 2011, 02:37 PM
Post #165
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Ginger Prince
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the only change id make to that system is that you should be (atleast)drawing at home against the top 3-5 clubs(assuming you are one of the top 6), and maybe winning the away games against the bottom 10-12?
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"I don't play against a particular team. I play against the idea of losing." - Cantona
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